Trump’s tariffs threaten American dairy exports 

USA – U.S President Donald Trump’s latest trade policies are casting a shadow over the American dairy industry, which has been banking on exports to sustain its recent growth. 

According to reports,  the new tariffs, set to take effect immediately after their announcement on April 2, 2025, could jeopardize US$8.2 billion in U.S. dairy exports. 

This comes at a critical time when dairy farmers are looking to international markets to offload surplus production.

The U.S. dairy sector has seen a boom in output, with milk production reaching record levels in recent years. 

According to the U.S. Dairy Export Council, exports accounted for 17% of total milk production in 2024, a figure that industry leaders hoped would grow. 

However, Trump’s reciprocal tariffs, designed to match trade barriers imposed by other countries, are raising fears of retaliation. 

Countries like Mexico and China, key buyers of American cheese and whey, may respond with their own levies, shrinking demand for U.S. products.

Dairy futures have already taken a hit. Prices for milk contracts through June 2025 have dropped to their lowest since April 2024, reflecting concerns over sluggish sales. 

Corey Geiger, a dairy economist at CoBank, noted that whey prices have also fallen to a five-month low. 

“We’re seeing the market brace for a tough road ahead,” Geiger said, pointing to tariff threats and a slowdown in restaurant activity as driving factors.

The White House has defended the tariffs as a way to protect American industries. Trump’s top spokeswoman, Karoline Leavitt, told reporters, “These measures will level the playing field and bring manufacturing back to the U.S.” 

Yet, dairy leaders are worried about the immediate fallout. Krysta Harden, president of the U.S. Dairy Export Council, warned that retaliatory tariffs could disrupt years of market-building efforts.

She emphasized that while the industry is watching how Trump might use these policies to negotiate better trade terms, the risks are high.

Analysts suggest the tariffs could ripple beyond dairy, affecting farmers already grappling with rising costs. 

The American Farm Bureau Federation estimates that a prolonged trade war could cut farm income by up to 10% in 2025. 

Meanwhile, some in the industry remain cautiously optimistic.

 “We’re interested to see if the president can leverage this to open new doors,” said Matt Morris, a dairy cooperative manager in Wisconsin.

As the tariffs roll out, the dairy sector braces for uncertainty. With global trade tensions rising, the future of America’s dairy exports hangs in the balance, threatening a vital lifeline for farmers nationwide.