U.S. fluid milk sales rise for first time since 2009 as dairy exports dip

USA – The National Milk Producers Federation has reported that fluid milk sales in 2024 are on track to surpass 2023 levels, marking the first year-over-year increase since 2009. 

According to the Dairy Market Report, commercial use of cheese, butter, and yogurt remained strong through November, while sales of key dairy ingredient products declined. 

U.S. dairy exports also dipped in November, although cheese exports remained a bright spot, particularly with increased shipments to Mexico, South Korea, and Japan. 

Butter imports continued to rise, largely driven by shipments from Ireland, contributing to an increase in total U.S. dairy import volumes.

Milk production in the U.S. dropped by 1% in November following three consecutive months of growth. 

A significant decline in milk production per cow was noted as the primary reason for the decrease. The U.S. Department of Agriculture revised its estimate for October dairy cow numbers upward, breaking a 16-month streak of below-year-ago levels. 

However, November’s figures showed an unusually large drop in per-cow milk production, with the decline particularly noticeable in California, New Mexico, Texas, and Michigan. 

The Consumer Price Index for all items remained stable in the fourth quarter of 2024, with food and beverage prices averaging nearly 5% higher than the overall inflation rate, while dairy products were 14% lower on average.

November dairy exports accounted for 15.4% of U.S. milk solids production, a slight drop from the 16.5% average over the first eleven months of 2024. 

Products such as nonfat dry milk, modified whey, and lactose saw notable declines in export volumes. 

However, cheese exports continued to grow, reaching 7.9% of total domestic cheese production year-to-date, an increase from the previous record of 7.1%. 

The U.S. shipped cheese to 92 countries, with Mexico receiving the largest share. Canada, also among the top five importers, likely re-exported most of its imports under its Imports for Re-export program.

On the import side, November saw the highest percentage of U.S. milk solids imports since December 2008, with butter leading in volume, followed by milk protein concentrates, isolates, and caseinates. 

Butter imports set a new record, equivalent to 7.7% of domestic production, with Ireland supplying 71% of imports. Cheese imports also grew, rising by 8% compared to the previous year.

Cheese production in the September-November period declined slightly, while butter production increased. Dry whey and whey protein concentrate production fell, aligning with reduced commercial use. 

Retail dairy prices remained relatively stable, with December prices for nonfat dry milk and dry whey continuing to rise, while butter and cheese prices declined. 

The Class III milk price dropped sharply in December, while the Class IV price saw a moderate decline. Retail inflation ticked up slightly, but dairy product prices continued to lag behind general food inflation.

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