CHINA – China’s demand for milk powders has shown signs of resurgence despite an overall decline in dairy imports throughout 2024.
A report by China’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) indicated that the country’s economy expanded by an estimated 5% during the year, driven by exports and investment.
Analysts noted that while this growth exceeded expectations, weak consumer spending and challenges stemming from the real estate sector remained significant concerns.
The country’s population continued to decline for the third consecutive year, presenting additional economic challenges.
According to analysts, the aging population and shrinking workforce are likely to influence long-term consumption patterns, including demand for dairy products.
Reports indicated that China’s dairy import landscape is shifting as the country navigates these demographic and economic changes.
China’s purchases of ultra-high temperature (UHT) milk remained weak, with December imports falling by 27% compared to the same period in 2023.
For the entire year, UHT milk imports declined by 24%, marking the lowest annual value since 2015.
However, December saw an increase in imports of whole milk powder (WMP), which more than doubled compared to December 2023, surpassing 95 million pounds.
Despite this spike, China’s total WMP imports for the year were reported to be 5% lower than in 2023 and significantly below the record set in 2021.
Skim milk powder imports in December also increased but remained sharply down by 34% for the year.
A shift in purchasing preferences was noted, as China’s imports of butter reached a record 28.4 million pounds in 2024.
Reports further highlighted that cheese imports, although down 3% from 2023, remained among the highest recorded, ranking third historically.
Whey imports also declined slightly but maintained a strong position, ranking as the third-largest import volume on record.
While total dairy import volumes declined, China’s domestic milk production also slowed after experiencing years of growth.
This reduction in local milk supply has impacted the availability of raw materials for processing companies, limiting their ability to produce WMP and other dairy products.
Analysts indicated that WMP demand in China remained subdued for most of 2024, counterbalancing the effects of lower milk production.
However, strong import volumes in December and rising prices at Global Dairy Trade auctions suggested that demand could be rebounding.
The outlook for 2025 remains uncertain, with market analysts closely monitoring whether China’s demand for milk powders will continue its recent upward trend.
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