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AFRICA – North African countries have announced ambitious plans to increase dairy production in response to growing demand driven by rapid population growth.
This goal presents significant challenges, particularly due to persistent shortages of raw milk and feed in the Maghreb region.
Food security has been a pressing concern as Egypt’s population is projected to rise from 102 million in 2023 to 120 million by 2030, while Morocco’s population is expected to increase from 38 to 40 million within the same period.
Other nations in the region are also experiencing continuous population growth, heightening the urgency for sustainable dairy production.
Egypt
Egypt is taking a strategic approach by drafting its first-ever dairy industry development roadmap.
Reported by the Animal and Fisheries Research Council, the document outlines a plan to boost per capita dairy consumption from 61kg to 70kg by 2030 while reducing imports to marginal levels.
Dr. Sobhi Salam, the general coordinator and a member of the council, stated that the roadmap also aims to improve profitability for dairy companies and address long-standing quality issues.
Hussein Abu Saddam, head of the Farmers Syndicate, reported that Egypt produces nearly 7 million tonnes of raw milk annually, with the majority coming from small-scale farmers who lack proper storage and packaging knowledge.
Due to these challenges, Egyptian cheese manufacturers remain heavily reliant on imported raw milk.
According to the Egyptian Agricultural Ministry, large-scale farms adhering to international standards contribute only 10% of the country’s milk production, while medium-sized farms account for 20% and small backyard operations provide nearly 70%.
The ministry acknowledged that production from these farms declines sharply during the summer due to heat stress and the absence of automatic cooling systems.
Improving the genetic potential of dairy herds is a key focus of the new strategy, with an emphasis on developing cattle that are not only more productive but also better adapted to high temperatures amid changing climate conditions.
Algeria
In Algeria, the government has also set a goal of achieving dairy self-sufficiency.
A report by the Agriculture, Fisheries, and Environmental Protection Committee revealed that the country currently produces 2.5 billion litres of milk annually, falling short of the 4 billion litres required.
However, efforts to bridge this gap are already underway. A US$3.5 billion agreement between Qatari firm Baladna Q.P.S.C. and the Algerian government aims to establish large-scale integrated agricultural projects with a herd of 270,000 cattle and an annual production capacity of 1.7 billion litres of milk.
This initiative is expected to meet nearly 50% of Algeria’s powdered milk needs while modernising existing dairy operations and expanding sales points across the country.
Morocco
Despite achieving self-sufficiency in 2016, Morocco’s dairy sector has faced a severe crisis, with production declining by nearly 25% to its lowest level in a decade.
Reported by the Interprofessional Federation of the Milk Chain, raw milk output has dropped from 2.55 billion litres in 2020 to less than 2 billion litres.
Mohamed Rita, the federation’s director general, attributed the decline to persistent droughts that have severely impacted the Khemisset region, where the number of operational milk farms has dwindled from 79 to less than a dozen.
Abdelhak El Bouchichi, president of the National Association of Livestock Breeding Technicians, warned that systemic factors are also at play, with signs of the crisis emerging even before the Covid-19 pandemic.
Moroccan farmers reportedly raised concerns with the Agricultural Ministry over rising imports of dry milk and dairy products, as well as purchasing quotas imposed by large milk processors, but their warnings were largely ignored.
Tunisia
Tunisia is grappling with similar challenges despite declaring self-sufficiency in raw milk production in 1999.
According to official reports, the country has experienced a severe shortage of milk and dairy products in early 2024, leading to long queues at grocery stores and restrictions on purchases.
Anis Kharbash, a member of the Central Council of the Tunisian Union of Agriculture and Fisheries, estimated that Tunisia’s milk production has dropped by 300,000 litres per day in recent years, with daily output standing at 1.2 million litres against a consumption demand of 1.8 million litres.
Since 2017, Tunisia has reportedly lost nearly 100,000 dairy cows, representing a 25% decline in its dairy herd.
Continuing drought and climate change have contributed significantly to the downturn, although farmers argue that inconsistent government policies have played a major role.
With weather conditions making local dairy production less competitive, North African farmers are advocating for comprehensive government programmes to support producers and shield the market from foreign imports.
Across the region, there is a growing call for strategic interventions to stabilise dairy production and secure food supplies in the face of mounting challenges.
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