USA – Reported by USDEC, U.S. dairy exports have faced a decline in recent months, as higher global commodity prices have undercut demand, particularly for nonfat dry milk (NFDM)/skim milk powder (SMP) and whey.
After a 7% year-over-year (YOY) increase in the third quarter, the report indicated that U.S. dairy exports posted two consecutive YOY declines at the start of the fourth quarter.
November saw a 9% drop in export volume in milk solids equivalent (MSE) terms, with NFDM/SMP shipments falling to their lowest point of the year, totaling 54,100 metric tons (MT), while low-protein whey experienced its second consecutive monthly double-digit decline of 11%, a decrease of 4,926 MT.
This shortfall dragged U.S. year-to-date (YTD) MSE volume into negative territory, showing a 0.3% decrease compared to the same period the previous year.
According to the report, global demand for dairy eased in November, partly due to rising dairy commodity prices.
The U.S. was not alone in facing this challenge, as other major exporters, including New Zealand, also saw declines in dairy exports.
USDEC noted the fluctuating nature of the year, with monthly export volumes showing considerable variation.
Despite the decline in certain sectors, cheese exports remained a strong performer for the U.S. In November, cheese exports increased by 2%, or 928 MT, marking the 11th consecutive YOY increase.
This increase, however, was the smallest for the year, as U.S. suppliers faced strong numbers from November 2023. The growth in cheese exports was largely driven by Latin American markets, including Central America, Mexico, and South America.
Butterfat exports also saw significant growth, rising by 126%, or 2,479 MT, thanks to price differences between the U.S. and competitors like the EU and New Zealand.
On the downside, U.S. NFDM/SMP exports declined across nearly all major markets, including Southeast Asia, Mexico, South America, and the Middle East/North Africa.
Low-protein whey exports also fell sharply, with the largest decline occurring in China, the leading buyer of U.S. whey.
According to the report, the drop in Chinese demand for low-protein whey was primarily due to weaker demand from the swine sector, which relies heavily on these products for piglet feed.
The value of U.S. dairy exports in November rose by 10% to $691.5 million, supported by higher dairy commodity prices and strong sales of cheese and high-protein whey.
Year-to-date, U.S. dairy export value through November was up 2%, reaching US$7.62 billion. As dairy commodity prices eased slightly in December, the outlook for U.S. dairy exports in the final month of 2024 showed some improvement.
Additionally, a recent Global Dairy Trade auction held in January 2025 revealed a further pullback in New Zealand dairy prices, providing some relief to the global market.
The first Global Dairy Trade (GDT) auction of 2025 was a mixed bag, with some dairy product prices increasing while others dropping.
Mozzarella, butter, and buttermilk powder saw price increases, yet skim and whole milk powders, lactose, and anhydrous milk fat didn’t fare either.
Even though the overall price index dropped by 1.4%, there was still strong interest, with 143 winners out of the bidders.
According to Rabobank, the global dairy market remains relatively balanced, but issues like global politics and economic pressures are still at play. Dairy farmers need to monitor these factors and find ways to deal with the market’s ups and downs effectively.
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