Cheese, whey boosts U.S. dairy exports – USDEC

USA – In June 2024, U.S. dairy exports were largely buoyed by robust performances in cheese, whey, butterfat, and whole milk powder, according to the U.S. Dairy Export Council (USDEC).

While overall export volumes remained flat, with a minor year-over-year (YOY) decline of 0.3% in milk solids equivalent (MSE) terms, notable gains in product categories helped offset underperformance in nonfat dry milk/skim milk powder (NFDM/SMP), lactose, and milk protein concentrates.

Cheese exports continued their upward trajectory, marking the sixth consecutive month of growth. In June, U.S. cheese exports rose by 9%, adding 3,203 metric tons (MT) compared to the same period in 2023.

The 38,876 MT exported in June represents the second-highest total on record, though it fell below 40,000 MT for the first time since January 2024. 

Year-to-date (YTD), U.S. cheese exports have grown by an impressive 24% (+51,151 MT), reaching 263,350 MT, which puts the industry on pace for a record year in cheese exports.

According to the report, whey products, particularly low-protein and WPC80+, also saw strong demand, marking their third consecutive month of double-digit growth. 

U.S. whey exports grew by 12% in June (+5,446 MT), supported by steady demand from key markets like China and Southeast Asia. 

U.S. dairy shipments to China fell by just 1%, the smallest YOY decline in 2024, signaling a potential recovery in demand. 

Meanwhile, exports to Southeast Asia rebounded, with nonfat dry milk/skim milk powder (NFDM/SMP) and low-protein whey leading the charge with respective gains of 21% (+3,474 MT) and 19% (+1,912 MT).

However, not all export markets performed strongly. U.S. dairy exports to Mexico, typically a reliable market, fell by 12% in June. 

Weak GDP growth and a depreciating peso have hampered dairy imports into Mexico, leading to a 21% decline (-7,732 MT) in NFDM/SMP shipments. 

Other key markets in Central America also saw declines in NFDM/SMP imports, with exports dropping by 36% (-1,585 MT). 

Despite these challenges, U.S. cheese exports to Mexico and Central America were up by 12% and 27%, respectively, demonstrating a shifting demand within the dairy category.

As of mid-2024, U.S. dairy exports are down 1.7% in MSE terms, and total export value has decreased by 5% to US$4.09 billion. 

However, industry experts remain optimistic about the second half of the year, with markets showing signs of recovery in certain regions.

India’s cheese market set to reach US$2.395B by 2028

In contrast to the challenges facing the U.S. dairy industry, India’s cheese market is experiencing a period of robust expansion. 

According to a recent report by Research and Markets, the Indian cheese market was valued at US$1.614 billion in 2023 and is projected to reach US$2.395 billion by 2028, growing at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 8.21%.

Between 2018 and 2023, India’s cheese market recorded a CAGR of 15.04%, reflecting increasing consumer demand for both natural and processed cheese. 

In 2023, the market achieved a sales value of INR 133.33 billion, representing a 14.09% increase from the previous year. 

While the market’s strongest performance occurred in 2020, when it grew by 26.01%, it maintained steady momentum in the following years, albeit with slower growth in 2021 due to pandemic-related disruptions.

The growth in India’s cheese market was attributed to the evolving consumer preferences, increased urbanization, and rising disposable income. 

Processed cheese continues to dominate the market, though natural cheese is gaining ground as more consumers become interested in artisanal and premium cheese products. 

According to the report, the expanding middle class and the increasing number of fast-food chains have also contributed to the growing demand for cheese.

Despite the positive outlook, companies looking to enter or expand within India’s cheese market will need to navigate various challenges, including supply chain complexities and the country’s diverse consumer base. 

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