USA – The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) has recently released data indicating a slight decline in milk production across the top 24 milk-producing states in the US.
In July 2024, production reached 18.171 billion pounds, marking a 0.2% decrease compared to the same period in 2023.
Despite a modest increase in the average milk production per cow, which rose by 2 pounds to 2,047 pounds, the overall production dip was attributed to a slight reduction in the number of cows being milked, from 8.909 million to 8.878 million head.
Nationally, total U.S. milk production was 18.915 billion pounds in July, 0.4% lower than the previous year. California maintained its position as the leading state in both milk production and herd size, followed by Wisconsin, while Michigan reported the highest per cow average.
In its latest forecast, the USDA has revised its milk production estimates for 2024 and 2025 downward. The updated forecast anticipates an average of 9.340 million milk cows producing 24,230 pounds of milk per cow, resulting in a total production of 226.3 billion pounds in 2024.
The USDA also updated its price forecasts, with expectations of higher wholesale prices for Cheddar cheese, nonfat dry milk (NDM), and dry whey, while the forecast for butter prices has been lowered.
The all-milk price for 2024 is now projected at US$22.30 per hundredweight (cwt), a slight increase from previous estimates. For 2025, the all-milk price is forecasted to rise further to US$22.75 per cwt.
Regionally, the U.S. dairy sector is experiencing varied trends. Butter production has slowed in the East and Central regions due to reduced spot cream supplies, while the West has maintained steady churning activity. Demand for butter is expected to increase as the fall season approaches, with inventories remaining accessible.
Cheese production is also experiencing regional differences, with the East facing tighter milk volumes and increased Class I demand, which has limited the availability of milk for cheese manufacturing.
In contrast, cheese production in the West remains active, with steady to stronger demand as educational institutions reopen.
As the summer heat persists, milk volumes have decreased across the country, particularly in the Midwest and Southern states, where temperatures have reached triple digits.
The seasonal tightness has led to milk being redirected to meet Class I needs for the upcoming school year, with processors adjusting schedules accordingly.
The USDA’s latest report also revised import and export forecasts for 2024 and 2025. The fat basis export forecast for 2024 has been raised, driven by higher expected shipments of butter and milkfat, while the skim-solids basis export forecast remains unchanged.
For 2025, the skim-solids basis export forecast has been increased due to more competitive pricing for U.S. non-fat dry milk (NDM) on the global market.
Overall, the U.S. dairy industry faces a mixed outlook, with production challenges due to heat and inventory adjustments, balanced by strong demand and evolving market conditions.
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